Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries

Patrick Bryant; Arne Elofsson

Analyzing the importance of each mobility parameter for predicting the reduction in R 0 shows that the grocery and pharmacy appear to be the clearest indicator for R 0 change (see Figure 3 ). The grocery and pharmacy parameter is estimated to account for almost all reduction in R0 with a very narrow confidence interval. The residential parameter seems important as well, which would be expected, but the confidence interval displays a large uncertainty. The five different modelled sectors are shown with marked means and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). The grocery and pharmacy appear to be the clearest indicator for R0 change, estimated to account for almost all reduction in R0 with a very narrow CI. The residential parameter seems important as well, which would be expected, but the confidence interval displays a large uncertainty.