Author: Rajesh Ranjan
Title: Estimating the Final Epidemic Size for COVID-19 Outbreak using Improved Epidemiological Models Document date: 2020_4_16
ID: emyuny1a_54
Snippet: The estimate from the US as a whole should be taken with following considerations. Unlike countries like India and several other European countries, different states in the US have different norms for enforcing social distancing. In fact, many states where the COVID-19 outbreak is not yet severe, have not strict actions to enforce social distancing measures. Further, domestic travel is still allowed in the US unlike India, Italy and France. There.....
Document: The estimate from the US as a whole should be taken with following considerations. Unlike countries like India and several other European countries, different states in the US have different norms for enforcing social distancing. In fact, many states where the COVID-19 outbreak is not yet severe, have not strict actions to enforce social distancing measures. Further, domestic travel is still allowed in the US unlike India, Italy and France. Therefore, it is possible that while key states like New York and New Jersey show decline in the infection rate due to social distancing, other states where there is a small number of cases as of now may start showing fast exponential growth due to lack of sufficient measures. Therefore, the numbers reported in Table 3 for the US could still be optimistic.
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