Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries

Patrick Bryant; Arne Elofsson

The implications on R 0 due to relative mobility variations were estimated simultaneously for all countries using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulations in Stan (Stan Development Team, 2018) . The death data used in form of the number of deaths per day is from ECDC (European Centre of Disease Control), available and updated daily at the webpage https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distributi on-covid-19-cases-worldwide . The parameter specifics of the simulation are available in the code (see code section). Convergence for MCMC simulations is considered when the Rhat statistics are 1, which is displayed in Figure 4 . . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.