Author: Qin Jing; Chong You; Qiushi Lin; Taojun Hu; Shicheng Yu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: a novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study Document date: 2020_3_10
ID: it4ka7v0_3
Snippet: We have conducted a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study by identifying those asymptomatic individuals at their time of departure from Wuhan and then following them until their symptoms developed. The renewal process is hence adopted by considering the incubation period as a renewal and the duration between departure and symptom onset as a forward recurrence time. Under mild assumptions, the observations of selected forward times can be us.....
Document: We have conducted a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study by identifying those asymptomatic individuals at their time of departure from Wuhan and then following them until their symptoms developed. The renewal process is hence adopted by considering the incubation period as a renewal and the duration between departure and symptom onset as a forward recurrence time. Under mild assumptions, the observations of selected forward times can be used to consistently estimate the parameters in the distribution of the incubation period. Such a method enhances the accuracy of estimation by reducing recall bias and utilizing the abundant and readily available forward time data.
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