The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey

Durmuş, Hasan; Gökler, Mehmet Enes; Metintaş, Selma

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to demonstrate the effects of community-based social distancing interventions after the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Turkey on the course of the pandemic and to determine the number of prevented cases. METHODS: In this ecological study, the interventions implemented in response to the first COVID-19 cases in Turkey were evaluated and the effect of the interventions was demonstrated by calculating the effective reproduction number (R(t)) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coro navirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) when people complied with community-based social distancing rules. RESULTS: Google mobility scores decreased by an average of 36.33±22.41 points (range, 2.60 to 84.80) and a median of 43.80 points (interquartile range [IQR], 24.90 to 50.25). The interventions caused the calculated R(t) to decrease to 1.88 (95% confidence interval, 1.87 to 1.89). The median growth rate was 19.90% (IQR, 10.90 to 53.90). A positive correlation was found between Google mobility data and R(t) (r=0.783; p<0.001). The expected number of cases if the growth rate had not changed was predicted according to Google mobility categories, and it was estimated to be 1 381 922 in total. Thus, community-based interventions were estimated to have prevented 1 299 593 people from being infected. CONCLUSIONS: Community-based social distancing interventions significantly decreased the R(t) of COVID-19 by reducing human mobility, and thereby prevented many people from becoming infected. Another important result of this study is that it shows health policy-makers that data on human mobility in the community obtained via mobile phones can be a guide for measures to be taken.