Author: Dayton G Thorpe; Kelsey Lyberger
Title: Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 7sexfkxq_3
Snippet: We briefly summarize the CRT model here, but refer to [3] for full details. The model takes three inputs from each modeled population: 1) the age distribution, 2) the time series of known COVID-19 fatalities, and 3) the start dates of four mitigation policies (encouraging social distancing, closing schools and universities, banning public events, and a lockdown / stay-at-home order). It also relies on four values estimated from prior research: 1).....
Document: We briefly summarize the CRT model here, but refer to [3] for full details. The model takes three inputs from each modeled population: 1) the age distribution, 2) the time series of known COVID-19 fatalities, and 3) the start dates of four mitigation policies (encouraging social distancing, closing schools and universities, banning public events, and a lockdown / stay-at-home order). It also relies on four values estimated from prior research: 1) the infection fatality ratio (IFR) by age, 2) the serial interval distribution, 3) the infection-to-onset distribution, and 4) the onset-to-death distribution. These values are not extracted from population data based on testing people who are already symptomatic. Instead, they are measured from several cases in which all members of a small population at high risk of infection were tested and observed, whether or not they showed symptoms. We discuss the IFR further in section III.
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