Author: Tapiwa Ganyani; Cecile Kremer; Dongxuan Chen; Andrea Torneri; Christel Faes; Jacco Wallinga; Niel Hens
Title: Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data Document date: 2020_3_8
ID: cq6mivr9_55
Snippet: Infection control for the COVID-19 epidemic relies on case-based measures such as finding cases and tracing contacts. A variable that determines how effective these case-based measures are is the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission. Our estimates of this proportion are high, ranging from 0.48 to 0.77. This implies that the effectiveness of case finding and contact tracing in preventing COVID-19 infections will be considerably smaller compa.....
Document: Infection control for the COVID-19 epidemic relies on case-based measures such as finding cases and tracing contacts. A variable that determines how effective these case-based measures are is the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission. Our estimates of this proportion are high, ranging from 0.48 to 0.77. This implies that the effectiveness of case finding and contact tracing in preventing COVID-19 infections will be considerably smaller compared to the effectiveness in preventing SARS or MERS infections, where presymptomatic transmission did not play an important role (see e.g. [15] ). It is unlikely that these measures alone will suffice to control the COVID-19 epidemic. Additional measures, such as social distancing, are required.
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