A modified SEIR model to predict the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain: simulating control scenarios and multi-scale epidemics

Leonardo R Lopez; Xavier Rodo

With the estimates at hand, over 1.4 million people would be clinically diagnosed at the disease maximum and over 100.000 resulting deaths. Imposing stricter measures under the current uncertainties seems a logical preventive option given the considerable gains in terms of infected and casualties, even at moderate increases in alpha. Assessment of total country changes by means of aggregated and CCAA disaggregated data estimates, provides similar dynamical evolution despite different absolute values. Discrepancies to larger values might partly come from the heterogeneous population landscape in the different CCAA (e.g. cities with high population density), as opposed to the homogeneous 5 All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.