A modified SEIR model to predict the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain: simulating control scenarios and multi-scale epidemics

Leonardo R Lopez; Xavier Rodo

In this appendix we show an update of the fitted model with the data reported up to March 31. Figure 10 shows the the fitting and projections of the model with the new data. If we compare these results with those in the previous sections, the model now predicts an epidemic peak much lower than before. This may be mainly because of the Spanish government control measures imposed and a harder confinement restriction. In Figure 11 and to better understand the current scenario in the context of the scenarios previously outlined in Figure 5 , the dynamics corresponding to the parameters indicated above are added as dashed lines for each panel (Reported, Recovered and Dead). 15 All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.