A Study on COVID-19 Incidence in Europe through Two SEIR Epidemic Models Which Consider Mixed Contagions from Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Individuals

Nistal, Raúl de la Sen Manuel Gabirondo Jon Alonso-Quesada Santiago Garrido Aitor J.; Garrido, Izaskun

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) on the world has been partially controlled through different measures of social isolation and prophylaxis. Two new SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) models are proposed in order to describe this spread through different countries of Europe. In both models the infectivity of the asymptomatic period during the exposed stage of the disease will be taken into account. The different transmission rates of the SEIR models are calculated by considering the different locations and, more importantly, the lockdown measures implemented in each region. A new classification of these intervention measures will be set and their influence on the values of the transmission rates will be estimated through regression analysis.