Estimating the Risks from COVID-19 Infection in Adult Chemotherapy Patients

Matt Williams; Kerlann Le Calvez; Ella Mi; Jiarong Chen; Seema Dadhania; Lillie Pakzad-Shahabi

There are not yet any clear models to guide risk predictions in patients infected with COVID-19. One report by the Centres for Disease Control in China provided numbers of patients and fatalities divided by age, and by comorbidities. However, there was no cross-tabulation of factors, and so it is not clear how many patients in each age group had each comorbdity, nor how the risks associated with those co-morbidities interact with each other 3 . There is one small series of 18 patients with cancer, which suggests higher risks of intubation or death, but it is so small it difficult to draw robust conclusions, and the authors' conclusions have been criticised 4 . One other study suggests patients with a history of cancer have a higher risk of becoming infected with COVID. The data from CDC China have been used to simulate a population and then develop a risk model based on that simulated population 5 ; Although a useful step, it almost certainly leads to "double counting" of risk (i.e. the increased risk of death in older patients and in those with hypertension is related, as hypertension is commoner in the elderly). Data from patients admitted to hospital show an increased risk of death in older patients 6 .