Author: Weituo Zhang
Title: Estimating the presymptomatic transmission of COVID19 using incubation period and serial interval data Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: nkhjona0_4
Snippet: We estimated that the infection time was 2.3±2.7 days in Scenario 1, and was -2.4±4.2 days in Scenario 2, which implied that the majority of transmissions were post-symptomatic in Scenario 1 but were presymptomatic in Scenario 2. The dramatic change of infection time distribution between these two scenarios may due to effective case isolation and quarantine of people with Wuhan travel history which could significantly reduce transmissions after.....
Document: We estimated that the infection time was 2.3±2.7 days in Scenario 1, and was -2.4±4.2 days in Scenario 2, which implied that the majority of transmissions were post-symptomatic in Scenario 1 but were presymptomatic in Scenario 2. The dramatic change of infection time distribution between these two scenarios may due to effective case isolation and quarantine of people with Wuhan travel history which could significantly reduce transmissions after symptom onset. The method of moments estimations do not rely on any specific assumption of the distribution forms of the incubation period or serial interval.
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