Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran using epidemic modeling

Ebrahim Sahafizadeh; Samaneh Sartoli

The simulation results of this study indicated that the Ü´ of COVID-19 was 4.86 in the first week of the outbreak which was significantly larger than one. The schools and universities closed in the first week and in the second week the effective reproduction number decreased to 4.5. In the second week the working time reduced and effective reproduction number decreased to 4.29 from 13 th day to 16 th . Comparing to the other researches, the results showed that In the third and fourth weeks people decided to stay at home spontaneously and the government reduced the working time. The effective reproduction number significantly decreased to 2.1 between March 6, 2020 to March 18, 2020, which indicates that social distancing and prevention of travelling is needed to control the outbreak. I n f e c t i o u s ( M o d e l ) I n f e c t i o u s ( R e a l ) R e m o v e d ( M o d e l ) R e m o v e d ( R e a l ) . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.