Author: Zixin Hu; Qiyang Ge; Shudi Li; Li Jin; Momiao Xiong
Title: Evaluating the effect of public health intervention on the global-wide spread trajectory of Covid-19 Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: 44zduv27_17
Snippet: Our analysis demonstrated that public health intervention was extremely important. We observed that delaying intervention for one month caused the maximum number of cumulative cases increase from 211,000 to 3,929,641 and increased 18.62 times. Using 3.4% as the average case fatality rate, the number of deaths increased from 7,174 to 133,608. We analyzed 102 countries and identified 44 countries for which delaying intervention for one month led to.....
Document: Our analysis demonstrated that public health intervention was extremely important. We observed that delaying intervention for one month caused the maximum number of cumulative cases increase from 211,000 to 3,929,641 and increased 18.62 times. Using 3.4% as the average case fatality rate, the number of deaths increased from 7,174 to 133,608. We analyzed 102 countries and identified 44 countries for which delaying intervention for one month led to serious consequences. For example, delaying intervention for one month in Italy, Iran, USA and Germany increased the maximum number of cumulative cases from 29,475 to 1,493,498, from 37,428 to 729,274, from 5,278 to 293,797, and from 8,795 to 144,542, respectively. We also simulated the impact of delaying intervention for one week or two weeks on controlling the spread of coronavirus (scenarios 2 and 3). The impact of delaying one or two weeks on the spread of the coronavirus was between the immediate intervention and delaying intervention for one month. Intervention will provide the greatest benefit to mitigate the epidemic.
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