COVID-19 excess deaths in the United States during April 2020

Wetzler, Harry P; Wetzler, Erica A

Background: Some have claimed that the number of COVID-19 deaths is not much greater than would be experienced in the usual course of events. We sought to estimate the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States during April 2020 and compare that to the number of expected deaths in the same time period. Methods: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts that 67,212 COVID-19 deaths will occur during April 2020. To obtain the number of excess COVID-19 deaths, we multiplied published infection fatality rates by age by population numbers to obtain assumed infection rates. We then subtracted the expected number of deaths calculated using life table mortality rates. Results: During April 2020 there may be 61,690 to 62,526 excess deaths. Population infection rates of 3.6% to 4.3% by mid-April 2020 would generate the number of COVID-19 deaths predicted by IHME. Conclusions: During April 2020 over 90% of the COVID-19 deaths can be classified as excess deaths. These deaths would normally occur over 11.2 to 13.3 months instead of being concentrated in 1 month.