Selected article for: "local transmission and model fit"
Author: Alex Perkins; Sean M. Cavany; Sean M Moore; Rachel J Oidtman; Anita Lerch; Marya Poterek
Title: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
  • Document date: 2020_3_18
    • ID: fb8mca1h_7
    Snippet: Successful fitting of our model was demonstrated by its predictions of local deaths by March 12 (median: 33, 95% PPI: 9 -74), which were consistent with the 39 reported (Fig. 3) . Although we did not fit our model to deaths on a daily basis, 85.5% of the deaths predicted by our model occurred within the same range of days over which local deaths were reported (February 29 -March 12). This indicates that, collectively, our model's assumptions abou.....
    Document: Successful fitting of our model was demonstrated by its predictions of local deaths by March 12 (median: 33, 95% PPI: 9 -74), which were consistent with the 39 reported (Fig. 3) . Although we did not fit our model to deaths on a daily basis, 85.5% of the deaths predicted by our model occurred within the same range of days over which local deaths were reported (February 29 -March 12). This indicates that, collectively, our model's assumptions about the timing of importation, local transmission, and delay between exposure and death are plausible. Deaths caused by COVID-19 often occur several weeks after exposure (22) . Thus, our baseline model predicted that there would be a median of 395 (95% PPI: 125 -948) additional deaths as a result of infections that occurred by March 12. Relative to deaths reported by then, this represents an increase by a factor of 12.2 (95% PPI: 7.03 -21.3).

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