Author: Zian Zhuang; Peihua Cao; Shi Zhao; Yijun Lou; Weiming Wang; Shu Yang; Lin Yang; Daihai He
Title: Estimation of local novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Wuhan, China from off-site reported cases and population flow data from different sources Document date: 2020_3_2
ID: 4f84pc83_15
Snippet: As shown in Fig 1, we also collected daily numbers of exported cases from Wuhan to other cities in China, and all secondary cases of family or hospital clusters were excluded from analysis [11] . Eight cases from Guangdong were excluded due to the lack of traveling history to Hubei prior to illness onset. As for rest 371 cases that not specified as secondary case, we assume that the probability of a single case being an imported case is θ , and .....
Document: As shown in Fig 1, we also collected daily numbers of exported cases from Wuhan to other cities in China, and all secondary cases of family or hospital clusters were excluded from analysis [11] . Eight cases from Guangdong were excluded due to the lack of traveling history to Hubei prior to illness onset. As for rest 371 cases that not specified as secondary case, we assume that the probability of a single case being an imported case is θ , and each case is independent from each other. Then all of these unspecified cases follow a binomial distribution (n, θ ), where θ represents the probability that a case is exported from Wuhan. Since the most cases detected outside Wuhan are imported cases, by 23 January 2020 [12] , we estimated daily numbers of imported COVID-19 cases from Wuhan based on different level of probability θ (1,0.9,0.8), see Table S1 in appendix.
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