Author: Steve Yadlowsky; Nigam Shah; Jacob Steinhardt
Title: Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prevalence in Santa Clara County Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: 6vt60348_26
Snippet: The inferred number of infections for March 17 is 6,500, and the lower and upper bounds are 1,400 and 26,000, respectively. These estimates provide a prevalence of 0.34%, with bounds of 0.08% to 1.36% (Table 1 ). If the shelter-in-place order worked, this would be the expected maximum prevalence in the area, until people recover. Unfortunately, we will not know until about March 27-31 if this is the case, at which point we expect the number of ho.....
Document: The inferred number of infections for March 17 is 6,500, and the lower and upper bounds are 1,400 and 26,000, respectively. These estimates provide a prevalence of 0.34%, with bounds of 0.08% to 1.36% (Table 1 ). If the shelter-in-place order worked, this would be the expected maximum prevalence in the area, until people recover. Unfortunately, we will not know until about March 27-31 if this is the case, at which point we expect the number of hospitalizations to plateau. The detailed results are in Table 2 . Table 3 contains the sensitivity analysis where we consider other combinations of the parameters in the ranges provided, and rerun our analysis with 1000 randomly selected combinations. The results are similar to those reported above, although they cluster closer to the best guess of parameters.
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