On dynamics of fractional incommensurate model of Covid-19 with nonlinear saturated incidence rate

ALLA HAMOU, A.; AZROUL, E.; Hammouch, Z.; Lamrani alaoui, A.

In December 2019, a new virus belonging to the coronavirus strain has been discovered in Wuhan, China, this virus has attracted world-wide attention and it spread rapidly in the world, reaching nearly 216 countries in the world in November 2020. In this chapter, we study the fractional incommensurate SIQR (susceptible, infections, quarantined and removed) COVID-19 model with nonlinear saturated incidence rate using Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivatives. The existence and uniqueness of the solutions for the fractional model is proved using fixed point theorem, the model are shown to have two equilibrium point (disease free and an endemic equilibrium). Some numerical simulations using Euler method are also carried out to support our theoretical results. We estimated the value of the fractional orders and the parameters of the proposed model using the least squares method. Further, the sensitivity analysis of the parameter is performed as a result, our incommensurate model gives a good approximation to real data of COVID-19.