Author: milan batista
Title: Estimation of the final size of the coronavirus epidemic by the logistic model Document date: 2020_2_18
ID: ndnkhj42_36
Snippet: On the basis of the available data, we can now predict that the final size of the coronavirus epidemic using the logistic model will be approximately 83700   1300  cases and that the peak of the epidemic was on 9 Feb 2020. A more optimistic final size of 83300 cases is obtained using the Shanks transformation. Similar figures are obtained using the SIR model, where the predicted size of the epidemic is approximately 84500, and the Shanks.....
Document: On the basis of the available data, we can now predict that the final size of the coronavirus epidemic using the logistic model will be approximately 83700   1300  cases and that the peak of the epidemic was on 9 Feb 2020. A more optimistic final size of 83300 cases is obtained using the Shanks transformation. Similar figures are obtained using the SIR model, where the predicted size of the epidemic is approximately 84500, and the Shanks transformation lowers this number to about 83700 cases.
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