Author: Qin Jing; Chong You; Qiushi Lin; Taojun Hu; Shicheng Yu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: a novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study Document date: 2020_3_10
ID: it4ka7v0_9
Snippet: In the absence of complete and robust contact-tracing data, we have inferred the distribution of the incubation period of COVID-19 from the durations between departure from Wuhan and symptom onset for the confirmed cases. More than 1000 cases were collected from publicly available data. The proposed approach has a solid theoretical foundation and enhances the accuracy of estimation by reducing recall bias and utilizing a large pool of samples. Qu.....
Document: In the absence of complete and robust contact-tracing data, we have inferred the distribution of the incubation period of COVID-19 from the durations between departure from Wuhan and symptom onset for the confirmed cases. More than 1000 cases were collected from publicly available data. The proposed approach has a solid theoretical foundation and enhances the accuracy of estimation by reducing recall bias and utilizing a large pool of samples. Quarantine of individuals with exposure to infectious pathogens has always been an effective approach for containing contagious diseases in the past. One of the critical factors to determine the optimal quarantine of asymptomatic individuals is a good understanding of the incubation period, and this has been lacking for COVID-19.
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