Author: Charit S Narayanan
Title: A novel cohort analysis approach to determining the case fatality rate of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: bj0pmg6j_5
Snippet: The second method calculates the CFR as the ratio of aggregate deaths to closed cases. 32 This ignores those who are still sick and only includes those who have had a definite 33 outcome (death or recovery). The third procedure [5] uses the Kaplan-Meier survival 34 procedure, jointly considering two the probability of two outcomes (death and recovery), 35 which is violated if mean duration from hospital admission to death is substantially 36 shor.....
Document: The second method calculates the CFR as the ratio of aggregate deaths to closed cases. 32 This ignores those who are still sick and only includes those who have had a definite 33 outcome (death or recovery). The third procedure [5] uses the Kaplan-Meier survival 34 procedure, jointly considering two the probability of two outcomes (death and recovery), 35 which is violated if mean duration from hospital admission to death is substantially 36 shorter than the mean duration from hospital admission to discharge. Here, we develop 37 a novel procedure that evaluates the risk of death among confirmed cases, explicitly 38 accounting for the time of the onset-to-death interval. This method, in principle, should 39 yield the best results. All these methods except the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure 40 will without converge in the future when the outbreak is no longer in-progress but 41 diverge during the outbreak.
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