Author: Zixin Hu; Qiyang Ge; Shudi Li; Li Jin; Momiao Xiong
Title: Evaluating the effect of public health intervention on the global-wide spread trajectory of Covid-19 Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: 44zduv27_12
Snippet: To explore the shape of time-case curves of the top seven infected countries: China, Iran, Italy, Germany, South Korea, USA, France and all other countries, we presented Figure S3 . We observed two remarkable features. First, the time-case curve under the later intervention scenario was shifted for more than one month to the right, which implied that both peak time and end time lasted longer. Second, the time-case curve under later intervention w.....
Document: To explore the shape of time-case curves of the top seven infected countries: China, Iran, Italy, Germany, South Korea, USA, France and all other countries, we presented Figure S3 . We observed two remarkable features. First, the time-case curve under the later intervention scenario was shifted for more than one month to the right, which implied that both peak time and end time lasted longer. Second, the time-case curve under later intervention was much steeper than that of under the early intervention. In other words, later intervention will substantially increase the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19. Figure S4 showed the case-fatality rate curve as a function of the Date where the case-fatality rate was defined as the ratio of the number of deaths over the number of cumulative cases in the world. The average case-fatality rate was 3.4%.
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