Evaluating the effect of public health intervention on the global-wide spread trajectory of Covid-19

Zixin Hu; Qiyang Ge; Shudi Li; Li Jin; Momiao Xiong

We consider comprehensive interventions. Comprehensive intervention included strict travel restriction, cancel conferences, mandatory quarantine, restrict public transportation, school closing and shut down all non-essential companies. Using real data to evaluate the consequences of specific intervention is infeasible. We considered three intervention scenarios: (1) China type intervention where 1 was assigned to the intervention variable, (2) no major interventions where 0 was assigned to the intervention variable and (3) between the China type intervention and no major interventions where 0.5 was assigned to the intervention variable. Table 1 presented the forecasting results of COVID-19 in 30 countries and worldwide under limited and later intervention (scenario 4). Table 1 showed that the total peak number of confirmed cases and new cases in the world with limited intervention could reach 1,516,300 and 178,090, respectively. Table 1 also showed that if every country in the world took later intervention, finally, the total number of cases in the world could reach as high as 4 million, a frightening number (3, 929, 641) and miserable transmission of COVID-19 continuing until late Aug 2020. Table 1 author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.