Author: Faiza Syed; Syed Sibgatullah
Title: Estimation of the Final Size of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Pakistan Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: b7p92sb1_33
Snippet: The results of our study also predict that within a time span of 120 days, 90% of the population will have been infected with COVID-19. These include asymptomatic carriers, which could account for approximately 20% of the population 11 and will have the tendency to unknowingly infect others. However, the major concern for Pakistan would be the healthcare system which would not be able to cope with the overwhelming number of patients if the trajec.....
Document: The results of our study also predict that within a time span of 120 days, 90% of the population will have been infected with COVID-19. These include asymptomatic carriers, which could account for approximately 20% of the population 11 and will have the tendency to unknowingly infect others. However, the major concern for Pakistan would be the healthcare system which would not be able to cope with the overwhelming number of patients if the trajectory remains the same. Studies place the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 2.3%, severe cases at 14% and critical cases at 5% 12, 13 , which would imply that potentially 50,000 could die; 30,800,000 cases could become severe and 11,000,000 could become critical during the aftermath of epidemic in Pakistan. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement effective measures to curb the rise . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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