Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China

Chong You; Yuhao Deng; Wenjie Hu; Jiarui Sun; Qiushi Lin; Feng Zhou; Cheng Heng Pang; Yuan Zhang; Zhengchao Chen; Xiao-Hua Zhou

In this section we have estimated the basic reproduction number Ü´ and the controlled reproduction number Ü´ . Since January 19, 2020, various containment measures have been strictly implemented, especially after the State Council agreed to include NCP into the Management of the Infectious Diseases Law and the Health and Quarantine Law on January 20. Based on an average10.91-day infectious period estimate from our collected data, we expect a flatter rate of increment starting on January 29. Figure 3 plots the number of daily new cases in a log-scale against date, and, as anticipated, the trend supports our guess. Therefore, the quantities Ü´ and Ü´ are estimated based on collected data in two separate periods, i.e., from January 21 (the starting date of daily updates of confirmed cases . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.