Author: Steve Yadlowsky; Nigam Shah; Jacob Steinhardt
Title: Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prevalence in Santa Clara County Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: 6vt60348_3
Snippet: Also, given the hospitalization data, we can estimate the rate of growth of cases, and project this forward to estimate future hospitalizations. Given the shelter-in-place order for our area, our hope is that R 0 < 1, starting on March 17th. If we make the optimistic assumption that there are essentially no new infections after the shelter-in-place order, we still expect hospitalizations to increase for 10 to 14 days, leading to a peak hospital b.....
Document: Also, given the hospitalization data, we can estimate the rate of growth of cases, and project this forward to estimate future hospitalizations. Given the shelter-in-place order for our area, our hope is that R 0 < 1, starting on March 17th. If we make the optimistic assumption that there are essentially no new infections after the shelter-in-place order, we still expect hospitalizations to increase for 10 to 14 days, leading to a peak hospital bed demand 3x to 16x greater than at the time of the order; our best guess is 6x, but the precise ratio would require modeling time lag from infection to symptoms to hospitalization more precisely, where we defer to ongoing modeling efforts.
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