Estimation of Tunisia COVID-19 infected cases based on mortality rate

Ines Abdeljaoued-Tej; Marc Dhenain

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.15.20065532 doi: medRxiv preprint 2 MATERIALS AND METHOD We use a set of reported data to model the epidemic in Tunisia: data from the Tunisian Centre for Disease Control. It represents the epidemic transmission in Tunisia (see Figure 1 ). The first case was detected on March 2 th 2020. According to dataset t = 0 of the epidemic corresponds to 20 February. In [8] the epidemiological characteristics of patients are studied, and all patients who die on a given day have been infected much earlier, so the denominator of the fatality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died [9] . This is especially true as the rates of progression of the pandemic evolve differently in different countries: in April 2020, the number of people affected was increasing sharply from day to day in France, while it had stabilized in China. Figure 2 shows the reported mortality rate of COVID-19 in Tunisia.