CoViD--19: An Automatic, Semiparametric Estimation Method for the Population Infected in Italy

Fenga, Livio

To date, official data on the number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 , responsible for the CoViD19 , have been released by the Italian Government just on the basis of a non representative sample of population which tested positive for the swab. However a reliable estimation of the number of infected, including asymptomatic people, turns out to be crucial in the preparation of operational schemes and to estimate the future number of people, who will require, to different extents, medical attentions. In order to overcome the current data shortcoming, this paper proposes a bootstrap driven, estimation procedure for the number of people infected with the SARSCoV2. This method is designed to be robust, automatic and suitable to generate estimations at regional level. Obtained results show that, while official data at March the 12th report 12.839 cases in Italy, people infected wiyh the SARSCoV2 could be as high as 105.789.