Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions

Can Zhou

With updated real time domestic traffic, this study aims to integrate recent evidence of international evacuees extracted from Wuhan between Jan. 29 and Feb. 2, 2020 to infer the dynamics of the COVD-19 outbreak in Wuhan. In addition, a modified SEIR model was used to evaluate the empirical support for the presence of asymptomatic transmissions. Based on the data examined, this study found little evidence for the presence of asymptomatic transmissions. However, it is still too early to rule out its presence conclusively due to sample size and other limitations. The updated basic reproductive number was found to be 2.12 on average with a 95% credible interval of [2.04, 2.18] . It is smaller than previous estimates probably because the new estimate factors in the social and non-pharmaceutical mitigation implemented in Wuhan through the evacuee dataset. Detailed predictions of infected individuals exported both domestically and internationally were produced. The estimated case confirmation rate has been low but has increased steadily to 23.37% on average. The findings of this study depend on the validity of the underlying assumptions, and continuing work is needed, especially in monitoring the current infection status of Wuhan residents.