The clinical course and prognostic factors of severe COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: A retrospective case-control study

Liu, Jiacheng; Tu, Chao; Zhu, Muxin; Wang, Jianwen; Yang, Chongtu; Liu, Wei; Xiong, Bin

With the surge of newly diagnosed and severe cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the death toll is mounting, this study is aimed to explore the prognostic factors of severe COVID-19. This retrospective study included 122 inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 from January 13 to February 25, 2020. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to identity the risk factors, receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis was used for risk stratification. The baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR = 1.171, 95%CI = 1.049–1.306, P = .005) and Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (OR = 1.007, 95%CI = 1.002–1.011, P = .004) were identified as the independent risk factors for severe COVID-19 conditions, and the NLR-LDH grading system was developed to perform risk stratification. The baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR = 1.019, 95%CI = 1.004–1.306, P = .016) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) (OR = 1.018, 95%CI = 1.004–1.035, P = .007) were identified as the independent predictors for disease progression of severe patients. Accordingly, The NLR-LDH grading system was a useful prognostic tool for the early detection of severe COVID-19. And in the severe patients, CRP and BNP seemed to be helpful for predicting the disease progression or death.