Author: milan batista
Title: Estimation of the final size of the second phase of the coronavirus epidemic by the logistic model Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: h5zfmhqj_16
Snippet: The logistic model (2) contains three parameters: K, r, and A, which should be determined by regression analysis. Because the model is nonlinear, some care should be taken for initial guess. First of all, in the early stage, the logistic curve follows an exponential growth curve (3) , so the estimation of K is practically impossible. With enough data, the initial guess can be obtain in the following way. Expressing t from (2) and use three equidi.....
Document: The logistic model (2) contains three parameters: K, r, and A, which should be determined by regression analysis. Because the model is nonlinear, some care should be taken for initial guess. First of all, in the early stage, the logistic curve follows an exponential growth curve (3) , so the estimation of K is practically impossible. With enough data, the initial guess can be obtain in the following way. Expressing t from (2) and use three equidistant data point yield the following system of three equations:
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