Author: milan batista
Title: Estimation of the final size of the second phase of the coronavirus epidemic by the logistic model Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: h5zfmhqj_46
Snippet: We emphasize that the logistics model is a phenomenological, data-driven model. Thus, its forecasts are as reliable as useful are data and as good as the model can capture the dynamics of the epidemic. As daily epidemic size forecasts begin to converge, it can be said that the outbreak is under control. However, any systematic deviation from the forecast curve may indicate that the epidemic is escaping control. An example is China......
Document: We emphasize that the logistics model is a phenomenological, data-driven model. Thus, its forecasts are as reliable as useful are data and as good as the model can capture the dynamics of the epidemic. As daily epidemic size forecasts begin to converge, it can be said that the outbreak is under control. However, any systematic deviation from the forecast curve may indicate that the epidemic is escaping control. An example is China.
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