Independent Risk Factors for the Dynamic Development of COVID-19: A Retrospective Study

Liu, Miaomiao; Jiang, Hua; Li, Yujuan; Li, Chunmei; Tan, Zhijun; Jin, Faguang; Zhang, Tao; Nan, Yandong

OBJECTIVE: To identify the risk factors for predicting the dynamic progression of COVID-19. METHODS: A total of 2321 eligible patients were included in this study from February 4 to April 15, 2020. Two illness conditions, including mild/moderate (M/M) subtype to severe/critical (S/C) and S/C to fatality, were classified. Clinical message was collected and compared, respectively. Kaplan–Meier method, Cox regression model and risk score system were used to predict disease progression in S/C COVID-19. RESULTS: A total of 112 of 1761 patients with M/M subtype were progressors (P) and 1649 non-progressors (NP). Increasing disease progression associated with higher levels of neutrophils count (HR=1.958, 95% CI=1.253–3.059, P=0.003), CK (HR=2.203, 95% CI=1.048–4.632, P=0.037), LDH (HR=3.309, 95% CI=2.083–5.256, P<0.001) and CRP (HR=2.575, 95% CI=1.638–4.049, P<0.001), and lower level of lymphocytes count (HR=1.549, 95% CI=1.018–2.355, P=0.041), as well as total lesion volume ratio greater than ≥10% (HR=2.286, 95% CI=1.451–3.601, P<0.001) on admission. In progression to fatality, 56 of the 672 S/C cases died and 616 survived. Increasing fatality associated with lower level of lymphocytes count (HR:2.060, 95% CI:1.000–4.242, P=0.050), higher levels of BUN (HR:2.715, 95% CI:1.539–4.790, P<0.001), CK-MB (HR:3.412, 95% CI:1.760–6.616, P<0.001), LDH (HR:5.578, 95% CI:2.317–13.427, P<0.001), and PT (HR:3.619, 95% CI:2.102–6.231, P<0.001). Furthermore, high risk of neutrophils count, lymphocytes count, CK, LDH, CRP, and total lesion volume ratio was powerfully correlated with the incidence of progression to S/C in patients with NS COVID-19 and high odds of lymphocytes count, BUN, CK-MB, LDH, and PT were significantly associated with death in patients with S/C COVID-19. In addition, the progression and mortality rates increased with increasing risk scores. CONCLUSION: Elevated LDH level and lymphopenia were independent predictors for COVID-19 sustainable management in classifying non-severe patients who progressed to severe condition and identifying S/C patients who deteriorated to fatal outcomes as well. Total lesion volume ratio ≥10% may provide early predictive evidence with COVID-19 patients at high risk of developing into S/C to improve prognosis.