Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions

Can Zhou

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 A limitation of this study is that the international traffic still relies on its historical patterns in 2019. Due to the elevated domestic outflow, it is reasonable to expect a similar elevated outflow in the international traffic. The internationally exported cases inform the disease dynamics through the proportion of infected outbound international travelers from Wuhan. Increasing the outward flow effectively reduces the proportion infected and subsequently the basic reproductive number. Generally, international traffic by air is less variable than domestic traffic by road, and the potential surge in outbound international traffic would be less than 15% (the surge in outbound domestic traffic).