Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions

Can Zhou

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.15.20023440 doi: medRxiv preprint as follows. First, a random sample was drawn from the posterior of the R 0 in model SEIR, the SEIR model was solved for each of these R 0 s, then the number of internationally exported cases simulated from the Poisson distribution for all the dates when such data are available, and the number of latent individuals simulated from the Binomial distribution for each sample of evacuated foreign nationals. Next, for each simulated data set, posterior estimates were drawn from both the SEIR and SEAIR models, and WAIC and weight w calculated for both models. The significance of the weight of the SEAIR model is evaluated against the simulated empirical null distribution of the weight when the true model is SEIR.