Author: Laura Matrajt; Tiffany Leung
Title: Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: 0a49okho_23
Snippet: However, our simulations suggest that even in the more optimistic scenario, where all the age groups reduce their contact rates over 85%, the epidemic is set to rebound once the social distancing interventions are lifted. Our results suggest that social distancing interventions can "buy us" several weeks that could prove to be essential to strengthen our health systems and restock medical supplies, but will fail to mitigate the current pandemic. .....
Document: However, our simulations suggest that even in the more optimistic scenario, where all the age groups reduce their contact rates over 85%, the epidemic is set to rebound once the social distancing interventions are lifted. Our results suggest that social distancing interventions can "buy us" several weeks that could prove to be essential to strengthen our health systems and restock medical supplies, but will fail to mitigate the current pandemic. This is in agreement with other modeling results which suggested that very long periods of social distancing would be needed to control transmission [20] . Yet, sustaining social distancing interventions over a period of several months might not be feasible, both economically and socially. A combination of social distancing interventions with testing, isolation and contact tracing of new cases is needed to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 [30] . Further, these interventions need to happen in synchrony around the world, as a new imported case could spark a new outbreak in any given region.
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