Evaluation of the potential incidence of COVID-19 and effectiveness of contention measures in Spain: a data-driven approach

Alberto Aleta; Yamir Moreno

The upper level of administrative division in Spain is denominated Comunidad Autónoma. There are 15 of such "autonomous communities" in mainland Spain, one in the islands of the mediterranean sea (Balearic Islands) and one for the islands in the Atlantic Ocean (Canary Islands). Besides, there are two autonomous cities (ciudades autónomas) in the north of Africa, Ceuta and Melilla. The next administrative division is the province (provincia). There are 47 provinces in mainland Spain, 1 in the Balearic Islands and 2 in the Canary Islands, plus the two autonomous cities making up the 52 subpopulations considered in our model. The number of inhabitants of each province varies a lot, from over 5 millions in Madrid and Barcelona to less than 100,000 individuals in Ceuta and Melilla. We collected the number of inhabitants of each province from the data provided by the Spanish Statistical Office [16] .