Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions

Can Zhou

Because of the inherent bias in the daily traffic data, this study refrains from predicting the disease dynamics in other cities of China using meta-population modeling, even though daily real time traffic data among cities are available. The transportation pattern in China is unique in that primary modes of travel is by road and train, which were expected to account for 96% of the holiday traffic in 2020 (Xinhua News Agency, 2020). Many of those trips would take multiple days. For example, a trip from Wuhan to Beijing would span days if the traveler chooses to travel by road. But the real time traffic data would erroneously indicate flow from Wuhan into some traffic hubs in between Wuhan and the final destination, because of the daily accounting unit used in the calculation of the flow pattern. Thus, a meta-population model with such traffic data . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.