Evaluating the different control policies for COVID-19 between mainland China and European countries by a mathematical model in the confirmed cases

Feng Lin; Yi Huang; Huifang Zhang; Xu He; Yonghua Yin; Jiaxin Liu

Comparing the simulated results with the actual results would reflect the infection under 2 kinds of cases: one is the ad libitum transportation, the other is the transportation under control. It has already been mentioned in the previous introduction, the mechanism of this model did not take the transportation control into consideration. So this result could reflect how the infection would evolve without transportation control. Figure 6 shows the comparison of the simulated number with the actual number supplied by the Chinese CDC. Figure 6(a) gives the comparison of the number of the infected population every day in mainland China with the simulated result. And figure 6(b) shows the comparison of the number of the death in mainland China (blue dots), Hubei province China (red dots) and the simulated result. In fig.6(a) , the data of the active cases in Hubei province China is limited, so the number of active cases is not available. Generally, the increase of the active cases and the death simulated from the mathematical model is not as large as that in the actual data, and the key performances such as the peak number of the active cases, the number of the death are consistent with the actual information.