Author: Zixin Hu; Qiyang Ge; Shudi Li; Li Jin; Momiao Xiong
Title: Evaluating the effect of public health intervention on the global-wide spread trajectory of Covid-19 Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: 44zduv27_14
Snippet: As an alternative to the epidemiologic transmission model, we used MAE to forecast the realtime trajectory of the transmission dynamics and generate the real-time forecasts of Covid-19 across the world. The results showed that the accuracies of prediction and subsequently multiplestep forecasting were high. This approach allows us to address two important questions. The first question is whether comprehensive non-drug public health intervention i.....
Document: As an alternative to the epidemiologic transmission model, we used MAE to forecast the realtime trajectory of the transmission dynamics and generate the real-time forecasts of Covid-19 across the world. The results showed that the accuracies of prediction and subsequently multiplestep forecasting were high. This approach allows us to address two important questions. The first question is whether comprehensive non-drug public health intervention is required or not. The second question is how important is the intervention time. Since interventions are complicated and are difficult to quantify, we designed four intervention scenarios to represent the degrees of All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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