Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19

Laura Matrajt; Tiffany Leung

We then considered the delay of the epidemic under the four social distancing interventions and different infectious periods ( Figure 2 ). As expected, the social distancing strategy applied to all delays the epidemic the most, by over 40 days compared to baseline (do nothing). Targeting adults over 60 and children delays the epidemic by 23 days irrespective of infectious period, and targeting adults and adults over 60 gives a delay of 16 to 19 days (for infectious period of 8 and 5 days, respectively). Social distancing of adults over 60 only delays the epidemic no more than 7 days irrespective of infectious period (Table S1 ). Overall, social distancing interventions under a shorter infectious period result in a longer delay of epidemic peak. The infectious period did not have significant effect to the peak height of the epidemic relative to baseline.