The prevalence, incidence, prognosis and risk factors for depression and anxiety in a UK cohort during the COVID-19 pandemic

Jia, R.; Ayling, K.; Chalder, T.; Massey, A.; Gasteiger, N.; Broadbent, E.; Coupland, C.; vedhara, k.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic had profound immediate impacts on population mental health. However, in whom the effects may be prolonged is less clear. Aims: To investigate the prevalence, incidence, prognosis, and risk factors for depression and anxiety reported in a UK cohort over three distinct periods in the pandemic in 2020. Method: An online survey was distributed to a UK community cohort (n=3097) at three points: April (baseline), July-September (T2) and November-December (T3). Participants completed validated measures of depression and anxiety on each occasion and we prospectively explored the role of socio-demographic factors and psychological factors (loneliness, positive mood, perceived risk of and worry about COVID-19) as risk factors. Results: Depression (PHQ-9 means - baseline: 7.69, T2: 5.53, T3: 6.06) and anxiety scores (GAD-7 means -baseline: 6.59, T2: 4.60, T3: 4.98) were considerably greater than pre-pandemic population norms. Women reported greater depression and anxiety than men. Being younger, having prior mental health disorders, more negative life events due to COVID-19, as well as greater loneliness and lower positive mood at baseline were significant predictors of poorer mental health outcomes. Conclusion: The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health has persisted to some degree. Younger people and individuals with prior mental health disorders were at greatest risk. Easing of restrictions might bring the opportunity for a return to social interaction, which could mitigate the risk factors of loneliness and positive mood.