Author: Chaolong Wang; Li Liu; Xingjie Hao; Huan Guo; Qi Wang; Jiao Huang; Na He; Hongjie Yu; Xihong Lin; An Pan; Sheng Wei; Tangchun Wu
Title: Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 944pn0k9_41
Snippet: Our finding of substantial unascertained cases has important implications for the evaluation and control of the Covid-19 epidemic. 23 These unascertained cases were likely asymptomatic or with mild symptoms, who could mostly recover without seeking medical care. There is accumulating evidence on the existence of many asymptomatic or presymptomatic cases. For example, asymptomatic cases were estimated to account for 34.6% of the virus positive cas.....
Document: Our finding of substantial unascertained cases has important implications for the evaluation and control of the Covid-19 epidemic. 23 These unascertained cases were likely asymptomatic or with mild symptoms, who could mostly recover without seeking medical care. There is accumulating evidence on the existence of many asymptomatic or presymptomatic cases. For example, asymptomatic cases were estimated to account for 34.6% of the virus positive cases onboard the Princess Cruise ship. 14 Several recent reports also highlighted the difficulty to detect Covid-19 cases: about two thirds of the cases exported from mainland China remained undetected worldwide, 24 and the detection capacity varied from 11% in low surveillance countries to 40% in high surveillance countries. 25, 26 Consistent with these studies, our analyses and extensive simulations also indicated an ascertainment rate of 14%-41%
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