[The role of time-series propagation map and activity path of confirmed cases in the analysis and determination of COVID-19 epidemic].

Cao, L; Zhou, Y J; Zhang, F; Liu, Y R; Wang, X D; Yi, C; Xu, Q J; Xiao, S; Wang, L

Objective: The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track were used to explain the chain of transmission, describe the characteristics of transmission and analyze the mode of epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia, so as to provide evidence for the relevant government departments to carry out epidemic prevention and control. Methods: The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track table were drawn, according to the time of incidence, age, sex, number of close contacts and their interrelations. Results: At the end of February 10, 2020, 63 COVID-19 cases were reported in the research area. Among them, 57 cases were confirmed (1 deaths) and 6 cases were asymptomatic, 57 cases were imported cases (90.48%), 36 cases were reported by cluster epidemic (57.14%) among friends and relatives. Cases have been spread to the fourth generation. Conclusion: The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track showed that, in the research area, the epidemic situation of COVID-19 was mainly caused by imported case, and the clustering transmission was the major spread model. The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track are worth popularizing in the prevention and control of major infectious diseases.