Selected article for: "final size and peak delay"
Author: Alberto Aleta; Yamir Moreno
Title: Evaluation of the potential incidence of COVID-19 and effectiveness of contention measures in Spain: a data-driven approach
  • Document date: 2020_3_6
    • ID: 38f8ftmh_24
    Snippet: Admittedly, in Figure 6A it is observed that the previous measures have no effect on the final size of the epidemic. On the other hand, if we look at the time for the peak of the epidemic to arrive, Figure 6B , we see some minor effects. In particular, although shutting down most modes of transportation have practically no effect, if all private cars were removed (i.e., they remain confined in their corresponding province), the peak of the epidem.....
    Document: Admittedly, in Figure 6A it is observed that the previous measures have no effect on the final size of the epidemic. On the other hand, if we look at the time for the peak of the epidemic to arrive, Figure 6B , we see some minor effects. In particular, although shutting down most modes of transportation have practically no effect, if all private cars were removed (i.e., they remain confined in their corresponding province), the peak of the epidemic would be delayed by about 7 days. The most effective of the above scenarios of mobility restriction corresponds to an unrealistic 90% reduction of the overall traffic, when the peak would be delayed over 20 days. This is in agreement with previous studies that have shown that the only sizable effect of travel restrictions is to delay the peak of the epidemic. For instance, it has been claimed that the travel restrictions in Wuhan only delayed the peak of the epidemic by 3 days [4] .

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