Evaluation of the potential incidence of COVID-19 and effectiveness of contention measures in Spain: a data-driven approach

Alberto Aleta; Yamir Moreno

Another possibility, instead of limiting the mobility of the overall population, is to be extremely vigilant so as to make it possible to isolate all the cases that start to appear quickly enough. To check the impact of this policy, we have simulated a scenario in which the average number of days that an individual is able to go unnoticed and infect others is reduced from 2.3 to 2, 1.5 and 1 days. In Figure 7A , we observe that this strategy is much more effective than traffic restrictions. In particular, if we were able to reduce the time since symptoms' onset to isolation below 1.5 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. Each set of measures indicates when they were applied: since the beginning of the epidemic, and after 100 or 1,000 cases are detected in the whole country. Note that individuals who escape isolation remain infectious until they recover, and thus they could be thought of as asymptomatic spreaders.