Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom

Liu, Z.; Magal, P.; Webb, G.

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. We identify the early phase of the epidemics, when the number of cases grows exponentially, before government implementation of major control measures. We identify the next phase of the epidemics, when these social measures result in a time-dependent exponentially decreasing number of cases. We use reported case data, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, to model the transmission dynamics. We also incorporate into the transmission dynamics unreported cases. We construct our models with comprehensive consideration of the identification of model parameters. A key feature of our model is the evaluation of the timing and magnitude of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement. We project forward in time the development of the epidemics in these countries based on our model analysis.