Household Transmission but without the Community-acquired Outbreak of COVID-19 in Taiwan

Hsu, Chen-Yang; Wang, Jann-Tay; Huang, Kuo-Chin; Chiao-Hsin Fan, Antoria; Yeh, Yen-Po; Li-Sheng Chen, Sam

Background Household transmission is responsible for the subsequent outbreak of community-acquired COVID-19. The aim of this study was to elucidate the household transmission mode and to further estimate effective and basic reproductive number with and without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Materials and Methods A total of 26 households with 39 family contacts between January, 2020 and February, 2021 in Taiwan were enrolled for analysis. The Becker’s chain binomial model was used to analyze the probabilities of being infected and escaped from SARS-COV-2 before and after January 1st, 2021, which were further converted to estimating basic reproductive numbers in the absence of NPIs. The likelihood of leading to the subsequent community-acquired outbreak given NPIs was further assessed. Results The secondary attack rate was 46.2%. Given the saturated Greenwood mode selected as the best fitted model, the probability of infected and escaped from COVID-19 within household was estimated as 44.4% (95% CI: 5.0%-53.7%) and 55.7% (95% CI: 46.3%-65.0%), respectively. In the second period of early 2021, the infected probability was increased to 58.3% (95% CI: 12.7%-90.0%)) and the escape probability was lowered to 41.7% (95% CI: 0.0%-86.9%)). The corresponding basic reproductive numbers (R0) increased from 4.29 in the first period to 6.73 in the second period without NPIs. However, none of subsequent community-acquired outbreak was noted in Taiwan given very effective NPIs in both periods. Conclusions The proposed method and results are useful for designing household-specific containment measures and NPIs to stamp out a large-scale community-acquired outbreak as demonstrated in Taiwan.