Author: Vinitsky, S. I.; Gusev, A. A.; Derbov, V. L.; Krassovitskiy, P. M.; Pen’kov, F. M.; Chuluunbaatar, G.
Title: Reduced SIR Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Cord-id: h8igac45 Document date: 2021_4_29
ID: h8igac45
Snippet: We propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic preserving an optimal balance between the adequate description of a pandemic by SIR model and simplicity of practical estimates. As base model equations, we derive two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations with retarded time argument, applicable to any community (country, city, etc.).The presented examples of modeling the pandemic development depending on two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection
Document: We propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic preserving an optimal balance between the adequate description of a pandemic by SIR model and simplicity of practical estimates. As base model equations, we derive two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations with retarded time argument, applicable to any community (country, city, etc.).The presented examples of modeling the pandemic development depending on two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection by one virus carrier and the probability of contamination of a healthy population member in a contact with an infected one per unit time, e.g., a day, is in qualitative agreement with the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed model is compared with the SIR model.
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